SYRIAN ENDGAME: Initial Assessment of the opening events

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Posted by Bel Suave Bel Suave
After a flurry of postings yesterday designed to simply stay ahead of what appeared to be a rapid escalation  towards confrontation on multiple fronts, it’s time for an assessment of what has transpired in Syria in the past 72 hours, and what happens next.

Overshadowing everything else, of course, the downed Israeli plane and airstrikes over Syria. Which has been interpreted by some as a successful operation by the Syrian side to repel and discourage further attacks. I see it differently; as I wrote yesterday “Israel now has the pretext it needed.” Without a downed plane – and (what is said to be now)a dead pilot, the call for all out ‘response’ would have remained problematic for tel aviv. With both ‘in the bag,’ the genie can indeed be let fully out of the bottle. Appeals to heartstrings in the USA, the gathering together in solidarity of the international judaic ‘voice’ which so powerfully galvanizes media narratives when required – these are the parts of the script which point to a ‘successful’ Israeli political operation, not a Syrian military one!

Given that this assessment will remain fundamentally at odds with the majority consensus, it’s worth fleshing that out a bit. What does Israel have to gain from the loss of a plane and a pilot?
My starting premise remains the supposition that the bombings, the ‘collateral damage’ and the perception of a ‘failed offensive’ over Syrian skies are all pre-arranged components of a wider reaching ‘operation.’ The goal(s) of said operation can only be interpreted in conjunction with a look at the other developments which occurred within our chosen time frame here.

To the north west of the theatre, we have to take into account the movements of the TSK into South Aleppo and direct contact thereby, with both the SAA and its’ Iranian miltia allies. Please note: “Shia” militia allies of the SAA. The TSK, in contrast, is working in tight co-ordination with not just its’ in house jihadist FSA militias, but has now incorporated the al Qaeda affiliate into its operations against Afrin and potentially – elsewhere.

Such as, against the Shias who are attempting to relieve two Shia villages besieged by Sunni jihadist forces! A dream scenario emerges for the Mossad planners; full scale clashes between the Turks and their proxies and the Syrians with their Iranian allies. The lack of any real effective progress against the Kurds on the Afrin front can now be understood in this context – the operation was from the start a decoy to conceal the real purpose of the Turk incursion into Syria – a direct confrontation between the Sunni and Shia(plus Alawite)Muslims with which to restart full scale hostilities that were at last dying down with the ouster of Daesh/ISIS from most of its refuges.

Lest it be thought that the Turks are seeking territorial conquests, no that is not the real issue: the Turkish agenda is, though it may be hard to believe, actual ‘holy war’ against ‘apostates in the style of their Ottoman heroes of ages past! This kind of irrational subtext to the geopolitical chessboard in play is not something available to the army of ‘analysts’ who look in upon our situation from afar. To understand what is really going on here – one needs to BE here, in the midst of a very violent, very messy, social transformation of a once pluralistic Republic of Turkey into a medieval totalitarian backwater ruled by a clique of very bloody-minded ‘ghazis' lusting for the destruction of all it sees as its’ enemies. The numerous stories I’ve written detailing this phenomena will serve as background to that aspect of the affair...and how its' stain has spread to Syria.

As my postings old and new have been at pains to point out – this concept of ‘holy war’ forms a tight bond between the two supposed ‘enemies’ of Srael and Turkey. That they have much more in common – ethno-religious impulse to genocide – than in conflict is simply beyond the scope of analysts’ conceptual framework – and therefore is a looming truth left of their equations. The result? Painfully inadequate understanding of the dynamics at play in Syria. A gaze at the map will show how overdue a correction to half-backed military analysis is! The collection of ‘rebel groups’ in southern Syria on the borders with Israel is now augmented by a ‘second front’ of the same rebel factions and the Turk army to the north now. Two fronts from which to attack a Syria almost successful in cleaning out its opposition rebel enemies in recent months; two fronts from which to drag Syrians back into full scale war amongst themselves – with the help of ‘outsiders’ claiming to be there to ‘keep the peace!’

Durers' Four HorsemenDurers' Four Horsemen

Outsiders, in addition to the Turks, such as – the Russians. The Americans. The Iranians. An explosive mix – if properly ignited! And who would wish to do that? In part two – we will find out!

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